With the World Cup only days away, I wanted to take a look at the teams who actually have a shot here. In an expanded field where 8 out of the 12 groups will see 3 teams advance, surely the field is more wide open than ever, right?
Wrong. There’s still only a handful of teams that have the potential to lift the trophy. So let’s dive in to see who can actually win this thing.
This story consists of three parts, all of which are linked:
- Introduction / Snowball’s Chance in Hell / The Long Shots
- The Contenders
- The Favorites (this one!)
The Favorites
Portugal, Brazil, Argentina, France, England, Spain
These are the big boys. Expect to see at least three of these teams in the semifinals, and likely all of them in the quarterfinals. Each of these teams are loaded at every position and will have huge weight on their shoulders to perform this summer.
Portugal (+1000)
How they’ll win:
Cristiano Ronaldo. The greatest goalscorer to ever play the game has returned for what will be his final World Cup… Maybe? The guy is a freak of nature, you never know. Either way you’re going to hear A LOT about this man all tournament. If he turns back the clock and wins the Golden Boot, this team will make the final. Interestingly I’m not sure his performance on the pitch will matter as much as the team’s midfield and defense.
Because this team is loaded with top-tier talent at every position. João Neves and Vitinha, midfielders for the best club team in the world: Paris Saint-Germain. They can control any game and completely shut down any and all opponents. The two-time UEFA Nations League winners and 2016 Euro winners have one trophy yet to lift: The World Cup.
Why they’ll lose:
Cristiano Ronaldo? For all of his incredible moments, he is probably the most selfish player in any team sport worldwide. He had to be to reach the incredible heights he has reached. The same selfishness that made him the greatest goalscorer ever cuts both ways and can rub his teammates wrong. When the team wins, it’s the CR7 show. When they lose? It’s everybody else’s fault. Not great for team chemistry.
Brazil (+800)
How they’ll win:
Managerial legend Carlo Ancelotti brings a haul of 30 major club trophies to the Seleção and propels the team to their past glory with a new play-style: defend and counter. The Brazilians have always been one of the best teams to watch in world football, but in some ways it may have hampered their success. It’s never been enough for the Brazilians to win, they have to win beautifully. Well, Ancelotti has already set that straight, emphasizing the importance of a staunch defense in knock-out tournaments.
If the team finds form and Ancelotti maximizes their talent, they can easily win their first World Cup since 2002.
Why they’ll lose:
A shaky defense? Lack of star power? Grasping at straws here, but the Brazil squad of recent years has lacked the flair and jaw-dropping talent they used to produce in bunches. The defense (particuarly fullbacks) looks worse than it ever has and that may be the difference in a tournament where winning and losing are the finest of margins.
Argentina (+800)
How they’ll win:
Messi is still Messi. That and an infusion of exciting young talent and incredibly experienced veterans lead Argentina to back-to-back World Cup victories for the first time since Brazil in 1958-1962. The team is incredibly balanced and manager Lionel Scaloni is a brilliant and ruthless tactitioner who knows his squad and players extremely well. He’s able to rotate at the right times and not lean on Messi magic as much.
Why they’ll lose:
Hunger. The team that pulled together an incredible string of victories to cement Messi as the greatest of all time, was all pulling in the same direction. Practically willing it to happen for their talisman. Will that same hunger and drive be there this time around? Or will Argentina succumb like 4 of the last 5 World Cup winners and get grouped following their triumph? In an expanded field that is unlikely, but only time will tell.
England (+600)
How they’ll win:
This team is loaded with star talent and can go toe-to-toe against team in the world. Harry Kane wins the golden boot, Jude Bellingham the golden ball, and Thomas Tuchel is able to use his knockout tournament expertise to finally get the Three Lions over the line. Football comes home.
Why they’ll lose:
The sun. Simply put, a bunch of Englanders are not prepared for the crushing heat and humidity of an American summer. The English punditry won’t shut up about it, and that provides a psychological block to these players. If everyone is telling you how horribly hot and humid it is, you start to believe them. Even if it’s not that bad. This team could well make the final but an outdoor stadium with a high-noon kickoff spells disaster for this team.
France (+500)
How they’ll win:
Most likely my pick to win it all. They have the experience, they have unbelievable depth, unparalleled by any team in the tournament. Not to mention losing the last World Cup in heartbreaking fashion. I think this team has the talent, the experience, and the chip on their shoulder that sees them to victory.
Why they’ll lose:
Injuries? Mbappé is a true dictator and the players revolt? Those are the only things that come to mind.
Their best defender William Saliba picked up an injury in the Champions League final and it was the first time I really doubted them. (They still have starting center backs from Bayern Munich and Liverpool, for what it’s worth). Although it looks like Saliba will be okay and available, a few key injuries could sink them.
The Mbappé issue is more nuanced. It seems everywhere this player goes, things turn sour. Looking at his season at Real Madrid and the sacking of Xabi Alonso, a lot gets blamed on him. But when you’re the star, your gravitation pulls everything to you, good and bad. We will see how the team chemistry unfolds.
Spain (+450)
Why they’ll win:
Winners of the most recent Euros tournament are loaded with a mix of young talent and veterans. A recognizable play-style that frustrates and tires opponents will be enough to get through any team. Superstar Lamine Yamal takes the next step and lifts his first World Cup trophy… and isn’t old enough to enjoy the champagne after.
How they’ll lose:
Injuries. Yamal tore his hamstring in the back end of the La Liga season for Barcelona. A few key injuries to major attackers like him could render Spain’s attack toothless. Overall their play style will keep enough possession to manufacture chances, but having players that can score from nothing-chances makes them the betting favorites.
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Best of luck to anyone out there watching, cheering, or betting on the World Cup this summer. For more betting soccer content and podcasts be sure to check out my gambling podcast: The Soccer Sharps. Anywhere you get pods.
