With the World Cup only days away, I wanted to take a look at the teams who actually have a shot here. In an expanded field where 8 out of the 12 groups will see 3 teams advance, surely the field is more wide open than ever, right?
Wrong. There’s still only a handful of teams that have the potential to lift the trophy. So let’s dive in to see who can actually win this thing.
This story consists of three parts, all of which are linked:
- Introduction / Snowball’s Chance in Hell / The Long Shots
- The Contenders (this one!)
- The Favorites
The Contenders
Senegal, Japan, Colombia, Morocco, Belgium, Norway, Netherlands, and Germany.
These teams could really do it. Expect at least one of these to make it to the semi-finals. All of these teams have huge strengths but most have one glaring weakness.
Senegal (+10000)
How they’ll win:
Their experience winning the African Cut of Nations, but then the bizarre circumstances of them being stripped of that title, cause the team to rally for one another. Creating an incredible us-against-the-world mentality propelling them to Africa’s first World Cup victory.
This team has already crowned themselves the best in Africa (if not on paper). Led by former Liverpool talisman Sadio Mané and a deep squad littered with premier league talent and even former Champions League winners (Edouard Mendy), they have the talent and the acumen to win a competitive international tournament.
Why they’ll lose:
It’s one thing to win the AFCON, but the pressure of winning the World Cup for an entire continent will be too much and the team will fall under the pressure. But one thing is for certain: no one will want to face Senegal in the knock-out stages.
Japan (+5000)
How they’ll win:
After sweeping their qualifiers with only one loss in 16 matches, this team is serious. A country with star players littered throughout Europe’s big 5 leagues sees their team come together and play with a smart, tactical approach that can put any team on notice. Soccer has been growing steadily for decades in Japan with massive investment in youth academies there. The investment finally pays off with a miracle run to the final.
Why they’ll lose:
Lack of star power? Though there are many great cogs throughout the team, you need proven match winners to lift this trophy. And so far, Japan don’t have that guy… yet.
Colombia (+3300)
How they’ll win:
After finishing second in heartbreaking fashion to Argentina at the last Copa America, Colombia storms back with a vengeance. Luis Suárez (not that one) continues his form for Sporting and wins the golden boot. Captain Luis DÃaz continues his stellar Bayern Munich form and wins the golden ball. With a robust diaspora fan-advantage in the Americas, Colombia lifts their first ever trophy.
Why they’ll lose:
Defense and goalkeeper. There are some incredible attacking players in this Colombia side and should be a lot of fun to watch (with some great fans as well), but with their goalkeeping options all coming from the Colombian Liga, there’s just not enough in the back to stop opposing goalscorers.
Morocco (+6600)
How they’ll win:
They made the semifinals last World Cup as a Cinderella story. They’re able to build on that success even after losing the AFCON final (wait, no, winning?) this year on their home soil. Achraf Hakimi, PSG’s do-it-all right back wins the golden ball and puts the team on his back, scoring goals and squeaking out 1-0 victories and penalty shoot-outs.
Why they’ll lose:
I’m boring myself typing this, but… not enough quality at the top end of the pitch? As you’ll see with many of the teams in this category, they can have absolute top-level A+ star talent in one position, or even a couple. But that’s not enough against teams that field 10 of those players.
Belgium (+3300)
How they’ll win:
This is is straight-up LOADED with star attacking talent. They are deep, with an excellent mix of youth and veteran leadership. They have a chip on their shoulder after all of the “failed golden generation” nonsense of World Cups past. The recipe is simple: Kevin Bruyne playing quarterback for the likes of Jeremy Doku, Lukebakio, Trossard, Lois Openda, and if healthy, Romelu Lukaku. That is a terrifying front line.
But sneaky important to the success of the team, in my opinion, is another massive strength: midfield. The ridiculous size and athelticism of 6’5″ Amadou Onana as a midfield general next to the crafty Youri Tielemans and Saelemaekers is enough to field-tilt any match. This team has the tools to do it.
Why they’ll lose:
Defense. For all of that attacking talent and that robust midfield, the defense is either old or inexperienced. There’s no one in their back-four you’d feel comfortable with in a tournament like this. Goalkeeper is a different story with an embarrassment of riches. But if the defense can’t find form, the team cannot win.
Norway (+2500)
How they’ll win:
Erling Haaland. This team has shot up the bookies’ rankings after a dominant qualifying campaign which saw them win every single game and score 37 goals in 8 matches. THIRTY. SEVEN. Haaland’s hot streak to start the year was ridiculous but it isn’t just him.
Alexander Sørloth has learned how to play as more of a winger to compliment Haaland and Antonio Nusa has turned into a dangerous threat for RB Leipzig this season. Add in Martin Ødegaard playing as a 10 and suddenly you understand why this team scores so many damn goals. Norwegian football is having a moment with Bødo/Glimt making a decent run in the Champions League and slaying some giants this season. The entire country is poised to make a deep run in the tournament even though they haven’t been there since 1998.
Why they’ll lose:
I think this team could go very far, particularly if Haaland is in the vein of form he found during qualifying. Ultimately this team has no experience winning major trophies and that inexperience will come back to haunt them as the pressure ratchets up. Not to mention the hellish heat in mid-July for a country who has most of it’s land-mass in the Arctic Circle.
Netherlands (+2000)
How they’ll win:
They concede the fewest goals of any team and lean on their defense and midfield to control games. Scoring from set-pieces and their relentless full backs. Somehow they avoid the usual off-field antics that seem to plague the team and they finally. FINALLY, lift their first ever World Cup Trophy.
Why they’ll lose:
The defense is dominant. The midfield is world-class. The attack? Not so much. Who’s scoring goals for this team? Memphis Depay might be their best attacker and he plays in Brazil now. Cody Gakpo being extended by Liverpool looks like a mistake. Ultimately you can’t win if you don’t score goals.
Germany (+1200)
How they’ll win:
Julian Nagelsmann continues to impress as one of the best young managerial minds in the game today. The dynamic duo of Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala absolutely puzzles defenses and they bag tons of goals together. Manuel Neuer keeps knocking back Father Time and the Meinschaft add another star to their crest.
Why they’ll lose:
I was very close to putting Germany in the next category but after winning in 2014, they got grouped in the next two World Cups. What will do this team in is a lack of belief based on their most recent failures.
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Best of luck to anyone out there watching, cheering, or betting on the World Cup this summer. For more betting soccer content and podcasts be sure to check out my gambling podcast: The Soccer Sharps. Anywhere you get pods.
