Match- Atlanta United host Nashville SC
My first official play for MLS Week 11 is in the early Saturday matchup between Atlanta and Nashville. Coming off of a 7-2 win, Nashville’s recent offensive explosion highlights Atlanta’s offensive ineptitude. In fact, it has been over 3 full matches since they have scored.
Pick- Nashville SC DNB +135
Atlanta will be without CB Gregersen and could be without Derrick Williams, so Nashville has a slight edge. However, as lackluster as Atlanta’s offense has been, they are one of the most talented groups in Major League Soccer. An explosion can happen at any time.
For that reason, I like Nashville on the Draw No Bet at +135, giving us some insurance from the x Factors like Miguel Almiron and Emmanuel Latte Lath who could bring Atlanta into relevance any week now.
By the Numbers-
My betting model shows us getting a 5.9% advantage over the implied probability from a +230 line, with a 36.2% chance of Nashville winning outright.
Atlanta is 2-2-2 at home while Nashville is 1-3 on the road. Those losses, however, are against RBNY, Charlotte, and Seattle. Losing to those three on the road are more expectations than happenstance, and I believe Nashville in Atlanta could end with a different result.
Match- CF Montreal host Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal have just their 3rd home match in MLS Week 11, where they are hosting the Philadelphia Union. While Montreal are winless in 2025, I still think they can develop past being a punching bag for the Eastern Conference.
Philadelphia are on a 2 game win streak after proving they have offense without Gazdag. This is important, as I am only interested in goals for this matchup.
Pick- Over 2.5 Goals -108
The overs have not hit in either Montreal home match this season, but those matches against Orlando City and Charlotte FC could be outliers. Philadelphia have now scored 3 in each of their last 2 matches, showing offensive life after parting with their all-time franchise leading goal scorer.
I don’t care who wins, or who scores the goals. With Montreal coming off of a midweek match, I tend to lean towards Philly as being the team who help us push the total past 3.
By the Numbers-
This game admittedly has a high range of outcomes, however I am looking at Montreal to get more comfortable at home, where their goal numbers have been poor but their xG numbers have been solid.
Montreal has -6.3 G-xG, meaning on average you would expect them to have scored 6.3 more goals than they have. Some of this is poor performance; they have no stars capable of raising the play of the players around him. However, there has to be some bad luck involved, too; this number represents the worst G-xG in MLS.
Match- Austin FC host Minnesota United
Next in MLS Week 11, Austin FC host Minnesota United. This game has a lot of variables, including Austin’s offense producing less than expected this season, and Minnesota United playing unexpectedly well on defense.
However the first 10 weeks of the season have gone, I still feel a lean towards Austin. An old rule I’ve had is “bet Texas home teams in the summer,” and that plays into my strategy here.
Pick- Austin FC +150
All things considered, my model still shows Austin as a clear favorite. In this case, the home/away splits suggest that while these teams may be similar in quality, location may be too much to overcome.
By the Numbers-
Austin FC have scored 4 goals and allowed 2 goals against in 5 home matches, while Minnesota has scored 6 goals and conceded 5 goals in 5 away matches. However, Minnesota scored 3 of those goals against Sporting KC, 2 against NYCFC, and 1 against the San Jose Earthquakes. In fact, neither Austin nor Minnesota have had particularly difficult home or away schedules, respectively.
My betting model has Austin with a 47.1% chance to win, and at +150 odds we have roughly 7.1% advantage over the implied win percentage that the Sportsbooks are giving us. With as clear an advantage as that, I will be taking +150 on the home team.
Match- Sporting KC host LA Galaxy
MLS Week 11 features a late Sunday matchup between two of the worst teams in the Western Conference, Sporting KC and the LA Galaxy. They combined for a 2-4-14 record, and LA Galaxy are off to the worst start of any MLS Cup winning team in league history.
There are a lot of plays that could be made, but I will be looking for a pro-Galaxy play. I think they are better than their record would suggest, especially offensively.
Pick- Galaxy O1.5 Goals +162
Early this season, the LA Galaxy’s new look midfield just wasn’t connecting with the attackers. However, I think facing Sporting KC is just what a struggling offense needs to get things right.
I want Galaxy to find the net twice this week. With players like Jeremy Paintsil approaching full fitness and helping the offense, I think the Galaxy can finally produce.
As a side note for this match, Dejan Joveljic of Sporting KC will be facing his old team for the first time. This could push the totals to their limits, and we could see an outburst of goals by both teams.
By the Numbers-
At +162 we are getting great odds on total that wasn’t such a long shot just last season. The LA Galaxy scored 7 goals in 2 matches against Sporting KC last year. As a strong point of note- the injured Riqui Puig did not start in either of those 2024 matches.
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