Mexico’s Liguilla has long been known as one of the most unpredictable postseason tournaments in world soccer. No matter how dominant a team may look across 17 regular-season matches, the two-leg knockout format has a way of reshuffling the deck and delivering unexpected twists.
This year’s quarterfinals are set with four enticing matchups: Toluca vs. Juárez, Tigres vs. Xolos (Pachuca), Cruz Azul vs. Chivas, and América vs. Rayados. Once again, predicting who will survive is as tricky as ever. Still, based on form, momentum, and a bit of instinct, there are clear favorites emerging.
The “Safe” Bets: Toluca & Tigres
To begin with, Toluca and Tigres appear to be the safest bets. Both were among the most consistent teams throughout the regular season and, importantly, they closed the campaign on a high note. Toluca’s attack has been fluid and relentless, while Tigres continue to demonstrate the maturity and depth that have defined their modern era of success. In contrast, their opponents Juárez and Xolos, though competitive and spirited, have struggled to show the kind of stability needed to pull off an upset against top-tier opponents. In the Liguilla, anything can happen, but it’s hard to envision either Juárez or Xolos taking down these two powerhouse sides over a two-leg series.
Cruz Azul vs. Chivas
The true intrigue begins with Cruz Azul vs. Chivas. Historically, it is uncommon for the top four seeds from the regular season to all advance to the semifinals. Every year, at least one lower-ranked team manages to sneak into the final four, guided by momentum, tactical discipline, or simply the magic of knockout soccer. This year, that team feels like Chivas.
The Guadalajara side finished the season playing their best soccer, scoring freely and showing a confidence that had been missing earlier in the campaign. Even Chicharito Hernández broke his scoring drought, injecting energy into the squad and into the fanbase. While Cruz Azul have had strong moments, Chivas’ momentum gives them the slight edge to pull off a classic Liguilla upset.
América vs. Monterrey
The most difficult matchup to call is América vs. Monterrey. On paper, this should be a clash between two of the strongest, most complete teams in the league. However, both arrive at the Liguilla without the sharpness or authority that typically characterizes their campaigns. Their form dipped at the end of the season, making this quarterfinal feel much more even than their rosters would suggest. Still, América hold one crucial advantage: the second leg will be played at their home stadium. In tight, high-pressure series, home-field advantage can be decisive. For that reason (and with only a slight degree of confidence)América get the nod.
If these predictions hold, the semifinals will feature Toluca vs. Chivas and América vs. Tigres: a mix of favorites, tradition, and one momentum-driven underdog. And in true Liguilla fashion, once we reach that stage, all bets are off.
