In Saturday’s full schedule of MLS fixtures, this particular matchup leaps out. The mighty Inter Miami, second place in the Eastern Conference and third in the Supporter’s Shield, will host lowly CF Montréal. L’Impact have 21 points, 18 fewer than the hosts, and languish in the bottom third of the league.
Should be an easy win for Miami then, right? Not so fast.
Not So Sweet Home
Miami inaugurated their new grounds earlier this season. NU stadium, which is not a veiled reference to Camp Nou (the legendary Barcelona stadium) but instead an abbreviation of Nubank, the Brazilian fintech sponsor, opened on April 4th. As stadium construction goes, this one was almost right-on-time, with only a one year delay. With seats for 26,700 fans, and the world’s most popular player on the home side, every single league game has been a sell-out.
But Inter Miami isn’t winning them.
The debut match against Austin FC ended in a 2-2 draw. Their second match against Red Bull New York had the same scoreline. Then they drew New England 1-1. Against Orlando City they lost 4-3. Their first win finally arrived on May 17th, a 2-0 defeat of Portland.
But NU stadium hasn’t been a refuge, or a redoubt, for Miami. In fact, Miami’s home form is among the worst in the Eastern Conference. If not for their league best road record, they’d be in serious trouble.
Montréal Must Be Optimistic
The visitors haven’t had a great season, but should come into this match with some optimism. They’ve only conceded one more goal than Miami (though have scored 20 fewer), and actually have a lower goals conceded per match average. Montréal’s weak road form is perfectly balanced with Miami’s terrible home form.
The reverse fixture on July 25 was a tight battle. Ultimately Montréal lost after a late penalty conversion from Luis Suárez, but they generated a higher xG and created more big chances than the visitors. They just lacked some clinical finishing, else the result could have gone their way. They’ll be cognizant to not squander any chance Miami gives them.
Montréal’s main attacking threat, Prince Owusu, has generated 14 big chances, only one fewer than Lionel Messi. Owusu’s 13 goals scored is way above his xG of 9.5 But here’s the thing: Montréal is not under any pressure to win this, which should allow them to play with more freedom.
Miami has lost four of their last five in all competitions; the other result was a draw. They’ve allowed goals in their last seven matches. Yeah, things are a little freefall, and folks are expecting to see a victory.
Try a Managerial Change!
Breaking news early this morning reported that interim coach Guillermo Hoyos will be stepping aside in favor of Cristian Alberto “Kily” González. You can read about this move here. As González and his staff still need to receive work permits, Hoyos will be in the dugout to delight fans with his creepy resemblance to the Deadwood character Al Swearengen.
