After a long hiatus, both due to the World Cup and our own laziness, the The Hooligan Attacking Index (HAI) is making its second appearance for the 2026 MLS season. Back in Week 8 we dropped our first article on this subject. But with the Autumnal Solstice only days in our rearview mirror, we can revisit with much stronger and more complete data after the conclusion of Week 27.
Only midfielders and forwards with five or more goals were included in the data set; there were 77 of them in total.
Effective vs. Prolific
The HAI measures effectiveness among goalscorers by using a formula that weighs positive statistics against negative ones. For attackers, positive statistics include: goals scored (duh), expected goals (xg), goal conversion %, successful dribbles (gotta reward fancy footwork). The negative statistics are: big chances missed, offsides.
For every variable, we determine the median value across the data set. We then divide the player’s numbers against the median. The positive results calculate a Goal Score Value (GSV). The negatives make up a Negative Score Value (NSV). Yeah, we don’t like the name either. Subtracting the NSV from the GSV gives you the HAI. Higher is better.
Minutes, an Impact Variable
We ran the results against the total minutes played, mainly for the entertainment factor, but noticed that it tended to skew the results towards “super subs” who happened to have concentrated bursts of success. So we split the data set into two buckets, those who have played more than half the season’s games (1,215 minutes or greater), and those who have not.
The Winner: Evander
He’s not at the top of the scoring table, but he is the most efficient scorer by our calculations. The Brazilian striker has 13 goals for FC Cincinnati, and a HAI of 4.166. His high score is a consequence of low negativity: he’s only missed 4 big chances and been called offsides once.
He’s a sharpshooter from distance, with 6 of his goals coming from outside the box, and all in open play (not from a dead ball). He’s not the most accurate shooter (his 15.5% conversion puts him just below the middle), but this gets compensated for with his above average successful dribbles percentage and a +3.5 over xG value.
The Freak: Lionel Messi
I couldn’t go without acknowledging Messi’s insane statistics. He leads the Golden Boot race with 21 goals. His 9 goals from outside the box is also the highest; with 6 of them resulting from direct free kicks. Messi shoots a lot, but has a goal conversion below Evander (14.1%). He’s also sloppy, with 13 missed big chances and an equal number of offside offenses.
The Next Best Nine
Players like Goodwin are anomalous, statistical freaks so to speak, but there are plenty of others who have outstanding HDI scores while not performing the role of “super sub.” To do this, we limited the data set to players who appeared in at least half the team’s games (e.g. logged 360 minutes or more). Here they are:
- Carles Gil (New England Revolution) – 3.867
- Guilherme (Houston Dynamo) – 3.652
- Pep Biel (Charlotte FC) – 3.509
- Pavel Bucha (FC Cincinnati) – 3.438
- Tai Baribo (DC United) – 3.411
- Hany Mukhtar (Nashville SC) – 3.255
- Alhassan Yusuf (New England Revolution) – 3.091
- Thomas Müller (Vancouver Whitecaps) – 3.023
- Nicolás Fernández (New York City FC) – 2.857
Just Want Goals?
For those who just want the goals and no formulae, this list is for you:
- Lionel Messi (Inter Miami) 21
- Petar Musa (FC Dallas) 18
- Brian White (Vancouver Whitecaps) 17
- Sam Surridge (Nashville SC) 16
- Milan Iloski (Philadelphia Union) 16
- Nicolás Fernández (NYCFC) 15
- Prince-Osei Owusu (CF Montreal) 15
- Preston Judd (San Jose Earthquakes) 15
- Players with 14 goals:
- Guilherme (Houston Dynamo)
- Tai Baribo (DC United)
- Kelvin Yeboah (Minnesota United)
- Rafael Navarro (Colorado Rapids / St. Louis City SC)
- Denis Bouanga (LAFC)
- Kévin Denkey (FC Cincinnati)
Most Effective “Super Subs”
I use the term “super sub” loosely here; it really represents players who have logged minutes under half of their team’s games. And the highest ranked player in this category would definitely not qualify as sub.
Hugo Cuypers started at 15 games with Chicago Fire ahead of the World Cup break. But when the club signed Polish striking legend Robert Lewandowski from Barcelona over the summer, he saw the writing on the wall. He handed over the #10 kit with a smile, called his agent and got a fat transfer to Monterrey in the LigaMX. Prior to his departure his HAI was 4.379, even higher than Evander’s, and he had 13 goals scored.
It should be noted that Lewandowski’s current HAI is a respectable 2.749 and his 68% successful dribbles is among the highest in the data set. And he still has games to add to his 6 goal tally.
The Others
- David Martínez Morales (LAFC) – 3.401
- Transferred to FC Midtjylland on Sept. 1
- Sebastian Berhalter (Vancouver Whitecaps) – 3.141
- Transferred to Stoke City on Sept. 1
- Antoine Griezmann (Orlando City SC) – 3.085
- Transferred from Atlético Madrid in July.
- Christian Ramirez (Austin FC) – 2.788
- Robert Lewandowski (Chicago Fire) – 2.749
- Transferred from Barcelona in July.
- Marcus Caldeira (Minnesota United) – 2.688
- Timo Werner (San Jose Earthquakes) – 2.526
