Match- Atlanta United hosts Philadelphia Union
To start MLS Week 14, we have Atlanta United hosting the Philadelphia Union. Atlanta’s offense looks to be in shambles, while Philadelphia has been back to their scoring, and yet also conceding, ways.
Pick- Union TT Over 1.5 Goals +136
The Philadelphia Union scoring twice, at +136 is my official play. I think the Union are a talented offense and are playing like it. They scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches, totaling 13 goals in those matches.
They are also conceding again, allowing the lowly LA Galaxy to score 2 times in their midweek matchup. I don’t want to pick a winner, although I lean heavily towards the Union. Instead, I will take Philly’s team total.
By the Numbers-
Atlanta is down and out right now; they have no wins in their last 7 matches and are being outscored 4 to 12 in that span. At home, they are conceding 1.43 goals per game, which is better than their 2.17 goals per game conceded away. However, their home matches have been against some poor offenses- Nashville, New England, Dallas, and RBNY skew those numbers from what I would expect.
Being as Philadelphia is scoring 1.8 goals per game away, I expect them to reach the over and a +136 price tag for the team total is a fantastic play.
Match- Charlotte FC hosts Chicago Fire
The second official play for MLS Week 14 is going to include the match with Charlotte FC hosting the Chicago Fire. Charlotte are on a cold streak, losing 4 straight matches. I think there is a little to be said about 3 of those, in a row, being road matches. This week, though, they are back home.
The Chicago Fire are a confusing team, also slumping right now. Their midweek win 2-1 over Atlanta United is their only win in 7 matches; they are 1-3-3 in those games, including a 7-2 loss at Nashville during that span.
Pick- Charlotte TT Over 1.5 Goals -130
Charlotte’s offense is getting healthy again, and I expect them to be near full strength this weekend. Toklomati started midweek I place of Agyemang, and Pep Beil looks better after missing time with a hamstring. Wilfried Zaha also is back in the mix, scoring 2 times in his last 3.
This could be a perfect bounce-back situation for Charlotte, and all I need for a -120 bet is a second goal.
By the Numbers-
Charlotte FC likes to score at home, while Chicago likes to concede on the road. In fact, Chicago has seen 43 goals in 12 road games (3.58 goals per game), making them a high risk play all around. Luckily, this isn’t a team winning bet, and all we need is goals.
Charlotte has scored 13 goals in 6 home games, but only 7 goals in 7 away games. They are home/away split legends, so taking them to score twice seems like a slam dunk. They were only held below 2 goals a single time, by a great New England defense.
Chicago is not them.
Match- Austin FC hosts Vancouver Whitecaps
MLS Week 14 is “Rivalry Week,” so of course we are going to have Austin FC host the Vancouver Whitecaps (??).
While this does not make much sense, it could still end up being a good match. Vancouver is one of only 4 teams not to have played midweek, and Austin is one of the few teams that had a home match midweek and again this weekend.
Pick- Under 2.5 Goals -106
Vancouver Draw No Bet -124
I have two official plays here, one on the under of 2.5 goals and the other on Vancouver to win, with the Draw No Bet option.
Vancouver certainly has the power to beat Austin on the road, and I like that they finally got some rest. Brian White is back from injury, and Ryan Gauld has a chance to go, as well.
By the Numbers-
This match has some volatility cooked in, as Austin has a 5-2-6 record despite scoring only 9 times. They are hosting home matches that only see 1.57 goals per game.
Vancouver is 3-2-0 on the road with 0 losses, but they are only seeing 2 total goals per away game. It seems their strategy is more conservative than at home, where they see a combined 3.43 goals per game.
I like Vancouver to win outright, but taking the DNB gives me insurance from a 0-0 or 1-1 cage fight. I think this game will be low scoring, which does favor the away side.
Match- FC Dallas hosts Houston Dynamo
MLS Week 14 does offer us a look into the Copa Tejas when FC Dallas hosts the Houston Dynamo.
FC Dallas are playing their second straight home game, while the Dynamo are only traveling from Houston, so despite playing midweek games these teams could be in good shape.
Pick- Under 2.5 Goals -102
I do not see a lot of goals in this matchup, as both teams have played to some low totals. I think the Under bet on 2.5 goals is going to hit, which at -102 is my official play.
By the Numbers-
Austin is playing to the under of 2.5 goals 60% of the time at home, while Houston is playing to the under 80% of the time when they are on the road.
According to my model, the Under 2.5 pick at -102 is offering an almost 13% advantage on the sportsbook’s implied probability, making this a must-bet for MLS Week 14.
Match- Portland Timbers host Seattle Sounders
This week the Portland Timbers drew 0-0 in Salt Lake City, and now head home to face the Seattle Sounders. Portland is 3-2-1 at home this season, with their only loss at the hands of the Whitecaps on opening day.
Seattle is traveling from LA where they lost 4-0 to LAFC on Wednesday night. Their away form is 2-2-4 with an unpredictable streak. This sets up an interesting MLS Week 14 rivalry matchup.
Pick- Timbers Draw No Bet +106
Considering their home form, I will be taking Portland on the Draw No Bet at +106. This protects against some uncertainty around the Timbers recording on only 3 days rest after playing at altitude.
Seattle is a big unpredictable this season, so while I’m tempted to take the Timbers on the money line, I will instead take the insurance.
By the Numbers-
The Seattle Sounders have a +9 home differential and a -7 road differential, and are the perfect example of MLS’s drastic home/away splits.
In this close match, between two teams which I do like quite a bit, I will be favoring the home side.
Match- LA Galaxy hosts LAFC
LAFC seems to be returning to form lately, beating Seattle 4-0 midweek and playing a tough 2-2 draw in Vancouver last weekend. Their 1-4 run through March seems to be thoroughly behind them, as they are scoring regularly and are unbeaten in their last 6 matches.
The Galaxy are down and out. More injuries to Gabriel Pec and Jeremy Paintsil left them without each of the 3 Ps, and they fell 3-2 to Philadelphia midweek after losing to the Red Bulls 7-0 last weekend.
Pick- LAFC Team Total Over 1.5 -108
When making a play on the LAFC Team Total, I am trying to think of how the Galaxy can stop LAFC. Bouanga is returning to form, and LAFC looks like world beaters again.
The Galaxy are rivals, and play LAFC hard. Otherwise, there is no metric or reason that the Galaxy can prevent LAFC from scoring goals.
By the Numbers-
LAFC has scored 15 goals in their last 6 matches and have no matches in their last 6 with fewer than 2 goals. The fact that LAFC scored over 1.5 goals in 83% of their road games this season has me even more confident.
By my model, LAFC has over a 62% chance at finding a second goal, which gives us over a 10% edge on the sportsbook’s implied probability on a -108 bet. That shows the numbers which back up the LAFC Team Total bet.
