After a long season, it is finally Decision Day in MLS. Everything that clubs have worked for in 2026 comes down to the final matchday this Saturday. For some teams such as FC Dallas, their spot in the postseason is already secured. For others like Colorado Rapids, this weekend determines everything. A win or a draw for Dallas will lock them into the number two seed in the West, as would a loss if San Jose Earthquakes don’t win. The Rapids currently hold the final spot in the postseason and more than likely need a result to keep it.
Match Details
What: MLS Decision Day
Where: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
When: Saturday November 7, 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT
Watch: Apple TV
Dallas Wrap Up Strong Regular Season
This year has been a successful one for FC Dallas. With a result against Colorado Rapids on Saturday, they will officially finish as the two seed in the Western Conference. A win would make this the best regular season the club has had since 2016 when they won the Supporters’ Shield. They got to this point in large part thanks to a great run of form to close out the season, only losing twice in their last 12 matches.
Although there is a lot to be proud of for Dallas, they could have easily already clinched a top two seed by now. Eric Quill’s side seem to have taken their foot off the gas. Their match last weekend was a 1-1 draw against Sporting Kansas City, the worst team in the league. Before that was a 2-0 home loss to Columbus Crew. Beating Colorado would go a long way to restoring the confidence and form that Dallas has shown for most of the season as they prepare for the playoffs.
The main reason for FC Dallas thriving has been Petar Musa. Known as ‘Moose,’ the 28 year old striker is second in the MLS Golden Boot race this season with 22 goals. For reference, Dallas’ second leading scorer is Logan Farrington with 10 and nobody else has more than four. Musa’s clinicality and consistency since joining MLS has been admirable. Each season his goal count has increased and he’s managed to outperform his xG every year. His form was rewarded over the summer as he played a big role for Croatia in the World Cup. Musa even scored for his country in Dallas against England. Of the eight Dallas league losses this season, only two of them featured Musa goals. When he scores, they do well.
Postseason On The Line For Rapids
Colorado Rapids are involved in the biggest Decision Day drama this year. In the Western Conference, six teams are fighting it out for the final three playoff spots. The Rapids are right in the middle of that race. They currently sit in ninth place, meaning if the season ended today they’d be involved in the Wild Card match. However, they face a tough task against FC Dallas and are at risk of elimination without a win.
If Colorado beats Dallas on Saturday, they’re in. That part is pretty straightforward. If they don’t win, things get complicated. A draw would send the Rapids to the postseason as long as the Seattle Sounders don’t beat LAFC or Portland Timbers lose to Austin FC. Colorado could also qualify with a loss but they would need a lot of help. At least three of the following would need to happen: Timbers lose by more than Rapids, Sounders lose, Salt Lake lose, Minnesota doesn’t win. To make a confusing situation more clear, the Rapids are in great shape if they win and decent shape if they draw.
Beating Dallas on the road will be one of the hardest matches of the season for Colorado. To get it done, they’ll need Paxten Aaronson to be at his best. The star midfielder has had a stellar first full season in the Rockies. After the cash-for-player trade of Rafael Navarro in the summer, Aaronson stepped up as the central figure of the Colorado attack. He has scored eight goals and provided 11 assists, both a team-high for players still with the Rapids. Paxten has faced heavy criticism for his decision to return to MLS but it led to a career year. Another standout performance from the former Olympian could be the difference between the playoffs and elimination.
Match Prediction
Although FC Dallas are the favorites, the Rapids won’t go down without a fight. Colorado has scored in 11 straight fixtures against Dallas. The hosts only need a point to secure the two seed and a draw would give the Rapids a solid chance at making the playoffs, so that’s what I think will happen.
Prediction: FC Dallas 2-2 Colorado Rapids
Braden Hines is a writer and data analyst with a passion for U.S. Soccer. Runs American Ultras Talk on YouTube and X. Works for Carolina Ascent FC and Syracuse Men’s Soccer.
