After Wednesday’s fixtures, the playoff picture in the MLS Western Conference is still very cloudy, even for the top four positions. This opacity is great for the fan. Only two games remain in the regular season. Such a tight race ensures nearly every tie will be hotly contested, as every point is now critical. Below is the situation broken down by current table position.
Three of the Top Four Spots Still Open
Vancouver’s big 4-1 beatdown of San Diego propelled them to 58 points, just enough to guarantee a top four finish. Whitecaps will host two of the best-of-three first round series if needed. The other three positions are still up for grabs, and there’s no shortage of clubs vying for the honor.
Of course, there’s still the Conference title on the line, but all Vancouver needs to do there is get a win and a draw (or a win and a FC Dallas loss), and they’ve locked that down. Next Sunday’s derby against Seattle Sounders will be a big one; they end the season at Montréal which should be a near-certain win.
FC Dallas
They stumbled against the Columbus Crew at home, losing 2-0. It was a big-time choke, and it probably cost them a chance to challenge Vancouver for the Western Conference title. They’re now four points behind, and will need to win out (and hope for a Whitecaps loss). One loss, or two draws, and that door closes. The good news? A single point will clinch them a top four spot. They should get that, and two more, when they travel to the hapless Sporting Kansas City this weekend.
St. Louis CITY
Be very afraid, STL. Your once high-flying, unstoppable squad is in freefall. You’ve dropped your last three league games, the most recent a 3-2 last minute defeat to Portland. Only Austin and SKC have performed worse, and they’re in last place. There’s still time to steady the place, however. Your +11 goal differential is strong, ensuring that you’ll probably have the edge in any points tie, excepting LAFC. A win and a San Jose loss/draw will lock you into the top four. Saturday’s fixture against a reeling San Diego FC is just what the doctor ordered. Then the season ends with a visit to Houston. Speaking of which…
Houston Dynamo
Talk about clutch! After four straight draws, Dynamo pulled off a gritty 1-0 win over Seattle at Lumen Field. That allowed them to leap over the San Jose Earthquakes into the fourth spot, at least for the time being. They have to stay dialed in for the next two matches. On Sunday night’s primetime spot they travel to Portland, who are fighting for their playoff dreams. That won’t be an easy one. Then they end their season facing St. Louis, where it’s entirely possible the winner stays in top four, and the loser gets knocked down a peg. Or not. We’ll have to see.
San Jose Earthquakes
The Quakes haven’t won a game in October, and will hope to scare visiting Real Salt Lake in a Halloween matinee fixture at PayPal Park. It’s not that San Jose is playing poorly, they simply get into a hole early, then have to dig their way out.
Every draw in October required a come-from-behind equalizer. Their path to the top four is simple: win*. Six points will put them at 55 in total. The asterisk means that they’ll need help, either one STL/Houston loss or two losses for Dallas. A draw would kill a top four finish, but guarantee them at least a 7th place spot (and let them avoid the play-in match).
LAFC
It would take a miracle. With 47 points, the best LAFC can hope for is 53. The x-factor for them is a very strong +14 goal differential which gives them the tiebreaker if all points are equal. With this in mind, here is the Jacob’s ladder for LAFC to ascend into a top four:
- They must win both games in any scenario.
- Option 1
- St. Louis AND Houston lose both remaining games.
- LAFC gets one of their two spots.
- Option 2
- St. Louis AND Houston draw both remaining games.
- LAFC ties on points, wins on goal differential.
Note: these outcomes do not take into account San Jose’s performance. Throwing them into the projections makes for a dizzying array of potential results. I won’t bend your brain trying to explain them.
