Entering the World Cup break at the end of May, San Jose Earthquakes were second in the Western Conference, third in the Supporters Shield, and one of the surprise clubs in MLS. Houston Dynamo weren’t even on the Supporter’s Shield radar, jostling with other clubs in the middle of the pack. In the Western Conference they had occupied the 8th place position for nearly a month, after dropping as low as 14th for one week.
Fast forward to the present day, and circumstances have certainly changed. Houston are now second in the West, fourth in the Shield race, while San Jose have lost their last four fixtures.
Surging Houston
In the winter transfer window between the 2025 and 2026 seasons, Houston was the second most active team, behind Real Salt Lake. They made a total of 26 transactions, 17 of them outbound and 9 of them inbound. Thirteen players were outright dismissed; two of them were loans. Midfielder Brooklyn Raines was traded to New England for a cool $1.6M. On the incoming front, Mateusz Bogusz was lured from Cruz Azul for over $6.5M and Brazilian winger Guilherme came from Santos for $2M.
While most pundits expected the Pole to be an impact signing, it turns out the Brazilian was an absolute steal. In his 22 games for Dynamo, Guilherme has 12 goals and 5 assists. That’s one goal more than the next four Houston players below him – combined. Most of these goals came in the first half of the season, at critical times to earn Houston valuable points to keep their noses just above the playoff line.
Last week their post-break, five game winning streak was undone by St. Louis CITY (another team staging a comeback). But coach Ben Olsen won’t be too concerned about that blip. San Jose presents too fragile a target for his side, and he’ll be expecting a win.
Flailing San Jose
Earthquakes coach Bruce Arena has never lost five competitive matches in a row in over 600+ games. The cagey veteran understands how streaks come and go. Earlier in the season when pressed by reporters to comment about San Jose’s record-breaking start he casually replied that it was a long season, and to ask him that same question in September.
In the post-match press conference after falling 5-1 to Minnesota, he hinted that changes would be upcoming. That was proven true with this week’s signing of midfielder Eduard Löwen from St. Louis. The addition of one the league’s best box-to-box players can only provide more solidity to a side that’s been struggling with consistency. It’s not clear that Löwen will start tomorrow; I would expect him to see some minutes in the second half to either provide a late spark or act as a calming influence to help the Quakes seal a win.
Much more concerning has been the form of newly signed goalkeeper Angus Gunn. The Scottish national conceded 13 goals in the past four losses, and with backup keeper Earl Edwards, Jr. sidelined with a long-term muscle injury there’s not much the team can do but hope for better from the 30 year-old.
The funny thing about San Jose’s season is that they’ve swung from one extreme to another. Few pundits believed they were as good as their start; and just as many think they’re not as bad as the past six matches indicate. They’re still solidly in playoff contention, and a coach as experienced as Bruce Arena should be able to grab the tiller and even out the ship.
Match Preview
Kickoff: 8:30pm ET/5:30pm PT
Streaming on AppleTV+
Recent performances notwithstanding, San Jose still has the third strongest away form of any team in MLS. This fact will go head-to-head against Houston’s strong home form. They haven’t lost in eight home matches, winning with five clean sheets and allowing the opposition only three goals.
Another curious fact is that in their last 30 meetings (that’s going back over 15 years), these two have never produced a 0-0 draw. So… goals. Yes. There will at least be one goal, and most likely two or three.
Hooligan Take: Houston Dynamo 2 – 2 San Jose Earthquakes
