Which Champions League Pot 4 Minnows Can Survive the Sharks?

There are always some minnows in the Champions League pool. Smaller clubs, often from countries whose domestic leagues aren’t as ‘high level.’ Many had to fight their way into the final 36 through the byzantine playoff qualification rounds. These clubs usually end up down in Pot 4 of the draw by virtue of their UEFA coefficient, a number calculated over the past five years of their competition history, and far too complicated to explain here.

Last season, a good number of Pot 4 teams defied the coefficient and advanced out of the group phase: Bødo/Glimt, AS Monaco, Newcastle United and Qarabağ. Newcastle actually finished in the top half of the playoff pool, but given the Premier League is among the globe’s most competitive, this accomplishment isn’t all that surprising. Qarabağ was a debutante, which made their achievement all the more impressive. Bødo/Glimt and AS Monaco are back for another cycle, though this time they’ve climbed into Pot 3. 

One nice thing about coefficients is they let amateur statisticians like myself calculate things. In this case, I looked at the relative difficulty of each Pot 4 team, calculating a final score from the average of their opponent’s coefficients. The lower the number, the “easier” their path to advancement. The highest average coefficient was 73 (Arsenal got that one); the lowest was 60 (shared between Feyenoord and Manchester United).

Here are all eight Pot 4 teams, listed by ease of schedule.

VfB Stuttgart

Stuttgart caught an absolute break here. They get to play Atlético Madrid at home, and their Pot 2 opponents (PSV Eindhoven and Club Brugge) are quite manageable. Their travel isn’t extreme (one of the benefits to being in central Europe), though the Galatasaray away game will be a challenge. They’re not a debutante, something also in their favor.
Hooligan Prediction: Advance

Como

Como is the hottest thing in club soccer now. I might say they’re the new Bødo, but they’ll have to impress on the European stage before I bestow that honor. Unlike the Norwegian club, who bloodied themselves with some lower level UEFA competitions before taking on the Champions League, Como are diving right into the deep end. To this effect, they got a favorable draw with some good pulls. PSG and Man Utd will have to travel to their house. All their other opponents are, well, beatable on any given day. If manager Cesc Fabregas can work some magic, you could see Como moving on.
Hooligan Prediction: Advance

Lens

Their Pot 1 draws are rough. But it’s in Pots 2 & 3 Lens will look to snatch points to stay afloat. I think Como’s coefficient radically underestimates their ability, and their fixture away in Bratislava could be the deciding factor for them. Of course, here’s what the coefficients DON’T tell you: Lens was completely asset stripped over summer. They lost 24 players, including critical cogs like Mamadou Sangaré and Facundo Medina. That won’t play well.
Hooligan Prediction: Eliminated

AEK Athens

The Greeks will be praying that Real Madrid come to Athens in the first game or two. The oppressive heat, coupled with a likelihood that José Mourinho will rest his starters, gives them a chance to bop a shark on the nose. See my note above about Como, which makes LASK their “must win” against a fellow Pot 4.
Hooligan Prediction: Eliminated

Viking

Emotionally, I hope Viking is this year’s Qarabağ. While they are technically debutantes to the Champions League, they’ve had some continental experience and success. Notably, they knocked Sporting and Chelsea in the UEFA Cup around 25 years ago. They play in a spartan black-white-black kit (reversed for away fixtures) that’s just badass. The reality is pretty harsh, though. Their away fixtures are Atlético Madrid, Aston Villa, Napoli and Stuttgart. Oof. Grab a point or two from those and MAYBE there’s a slim chance.
Hooligan Prediction: Eliminated

Sabah

The parallels between Sabah and Qarabağ are easy to draw: both are Azerbaijani. They’re also both underdogs. But Sabah had to play eight matches over four qualifying rounds to earn their spot. Which they did in convincing fashion, slotting a stoppage time equalizer and then slamming home two more goals in extra time over Hapoel Be’er Sheva. Sadly, I feel Sabah’s comparisons with Qarabağ will also end in the group phase. Despite ferocious home form, I don’t see them making it out.
Hooligan Prediction: Eliminated (they might even be the first team eliminated…)

Slovan Bratislava

As Slovakia’s pre-eminent club, Slovan Bratislava usually represents the nation at the UEFA stage. They just don’t do it very well. The last time they qualified for the group phase, they were eliminated after zero wins and zero points earned. So there’s your bar. Pretty low. Any points they get this season is an improvement. But advancing? No. No.
Hooligan Prediction: Eliminated

Slavia Prague

Last season Slavia Prague failed to win a match in the group phase. I’m fairly confident that won’t happen again this year, mostly because they play Sabah. And Villrreal at home. Of course, with the second most difficult schedule of the Pot 4 teams, they might do worse than last year’s three points (from three draws). But they won’t move on.
Hooligan Prediction: Eliminated

LASK

To get here, Austrian side LASK had to overcome a 3-0 deficit over Celtic. They did it, taking the game into extra time and then eventually winning 5-1. So there’s some steel in this crew. Enough steel that I think they could be the dark horse out of Pot 4. Yes, they have the toughest schedule (on paper). Yes, they are a debutante in the competition, which in their case might help. Check in with me around the end of the year; I bet LASK is still in the running.
Hooligan Prediction: Advance