For a federation with 54 nations competing for 16 spots, UEFA got Hobbesean (sort of) in their approach. Unlike other federations which draw out their qualification process (CONMEBOL’s lasts nearly two years to decide seven spots), UEFA opted to keep theirs quick.
Groups G through L, who comprise five teams and play eight matches, began back on March 21. Groups A through F, with four teams and playing six games, started in September. Group winners automatically qualify. The twelve second-place teams plus four others, chosen via a Byzantine process of ranking and election, enter a playoff round to select the final four countries.
Where We Stand Now
No country has clinched, though many have at least secured enough points to guarantee entry into the play-off round. Twelve countries have been officially eliminated, including some surprises. Below we’ll break down some of the most intriguing stories that have emerged so far.
W.T.Faroe Islands?
Sitting third in Group L on twelve points, this micro-state shocked Czechia with a 2 – 1 victory over the weekend. Unfortunately, the Cinderella story might end in November. Their final game is against group leaders Croatia, who have only conceded one goal in six matches. Meanwhile, Czechia plays even smaller Gibraltar. The Czechs have a one point advantage, and barring a complete collapse should win. Still, miracles can happen.
Excellent England
Have not conceded a goal. Have won all five games. Will probably smack Latvia around tomorrow. Things look good for Thomas Tuchel’s men, even if the legendary English press have been hand-wringing and bemoaning the slightest missteps.
Woe to Wales
Today’s match against Belgium at home was a must-not-lose. But for two hand-ball penalties that would have been the result. Instead, a ruthless Kevin De Bruyne converted twice from the spot and severely dented the Dragons’ chances. Their Nov. 18 fixture against North Macedonia could decide second place.
(G)Narley Norway
Against Israel, Erling Haaland missed two penalties… and still scored a hat-trick. He has 12 of Norway’s 29 goals (leading all countries). They lead Group I by six points over second-place Italy.
Awesome Austria
You can read about their most recent game here. They lead the group with 15 points, but with Bosnia and Herzegovina (13 points) and Romania (10 points) so close, Austria cannot afford to slip up.
Happy Holland
The Dutch will at least make the playoffs. And a win on Nov. 14 over Poland would lock their position atop Group G. Their previous meeting ended in a 1 – 1 draw despite the Dutch have double the shots, on target shots, corners and 74% possession.
Iberian Fates Still In Question
Spain (Group E) and Portugal (Group F) are undefeated in three games, with three left to play. Many pundits thought Portugal’s main rival would be the Republic of Ireland, but with only a single point they look quite out of the running, even if they are mathematically not eliminated. Spain only needs a win over Turkey (their earlier meeting was a 6 – 0 ass-whooping) to clinch their spot.
France in the Driver’s Seat
With two games to play in Group D, France have a three point edge over second place Ukraine and a six point edge over Iceland. This means a win on Nov. 13th over Ukraine gives them the keys to the car. Despite drawing France at home, Iceland knows their chances for advancement are slim.
MacBeth against Hamlet
Denmark & Scotland are tied with 10 points in Group C. The other two teams are eliminated. Surprisingly, one of those two is Greece, who have endured a disasterous qualification run. The fate of the group will probably be decided on Nov 18 when Scotland hosts the Danes. All down to one game. Winner takes all. That’s how it should be.
Sucky Sweden
One point. That’s all Sweden has earned in four games in Group B. They have a -5 goal differential. I hear Zlatan is plotting a comeback, but even he couldn’t help at this point. They need to win their next two games and have Switzerland and Kosovo lose both theirs to even have a shot. Oh, they need to overcome a 14 goal gap as well. Hah.
Group A-verage
Luxembourg is out. But Germany, Slovakia (each on 9) and Northern Ireland (6 points) are all still very much in contention. Germany didn’t look great against the Green and Whites today, barely holding against their continued attacks before escaping Belfast with a 1 – 0 win.
