Play offs determine last World Cup places
As the seemingly interminable World Cup qualifying campaign reaches its conclusion, focus this week turns to the play-offs featuring European teams, with four teams progressing to complete the UEFA quota.
Some teams are there because they finished second in their group. Some are there because of a more convoluted route via the Nations League, ie. Sweden, who have a shot at reaching the finals despite finishing bottom of the group having failed to win any of their six games. But it’s all up for grabs.
There are four pathways – A, B, C and D – featuring four teams. There are two single-leg semi-finals on 26th March, with the winners progressing to a single-leg final on 31st March.
Pathway A
Pathway A will see Italy play Northern Ireland in the semi-final; with Wales facing off against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Here we look at each team’s chances.
Italy
Four-time winners of the World Cup, Italy are the most eye-catching name in Pathway A. Memories of Marco Tardelli’s emotional fist clenching celebration in the 1982 final as he scored the second of Italy’s goals in a 3-1 victory over West Germany remain one of competition’s all-time iconic moments and the Azzurri always add something, even in failure. They haven’t played in a World Cup finals since 2014, and haven’t played a knockout game since 2006.
They failed to qualify automatically, finishing second behind a rampant Norway in their group, but Rene Gattuso’s team still had a decent campaign, winning six out of their eight games; losing home and away to Norway cost them dear.
Guttuso, appointed in June 2025 two games into the qualifying campaign, won the World Cup with Italy in 2006 and is well placed to navigate a potentially tricky play-off hurdle. He has bought a more attacking style to the team, with only Portugal and Belgium attempting more shots during qualifiers than Italy since he arrived. In Gianluigi Donnarumma, Sandro Tonali and Mateo Retegui, he has some heavy hitters which see Italy firm favourites to qualify through Pathway A.
Wales
Craig Bellamy’s side finished second in Group J, behind winners Belgium. Winners of five of their eight games, they will go into this game against Bosnia and Herzegovina in uncertain form. After a very strong opening campaign period, Wales have struggled in the last 12 months, including throwing away automatic qualification to the finals with an insipid display at home to Belgium. They’ve lost three of their last five, but ended their group campaign on a high, beating North Macedonia 7-1.
Bellamy has been talking this week about being fearless, about using home advantage and not allowing teams to settle, and Bosnia will face a raucous atmosphere at the Cardiff City Stadium.
Ranked 35th in the FIFA standings, Wales have only reached the World Cup twice, in 1948 and 2022. They stand a solid chance of making it three.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Also in indifferent form, having won two of their last 5, Sergej Barbarez’s men are aiming to reach the World Cup finals for the first time since 2014. The team was only formed in 1992 after splitting from Yugoslavia and are in no way the pushovers many expect. They regularly reach play-off competitions but invariably fail. Indeed, they haven’t yet won a game in seven play-off attempts.
The fact they still rely heavily on 40-year-old striker Edin Džeko is an indication of their chances.
Meanwhile, the build up to this huge game has been overshadowed by accusations that Brondby’s Welsh-born manager Steve Cooper had deliberately dropped Bosnia midfielder Benjamin Tahirović ahead of the play-off game. The allegations were later discovered to be without foundation, and Tahirović and Barbarez apologized to Cooper.
Northern Ireland
The minnow of the group, Michael O’Neill’s team face an uphill battle if they are to make their first World Cup finals in 40 years. His side are young and inexperienced, yet can also go into the games without fear, as few expect them to proceed.
Ranked 69th in the world, they finished third in their qualifying group, but were awarded a play-off spot because they had won their Nations League group.
O’Neill is joint managing Northern Ireland with Championship side Blackburn Rovers, and brings vast experience to the fixtures.
Predictions
Italy v Northern Ireland, Bergamo.
Thursday, March 26th
It’s hard to see how Italy, with a vastly superior squad, can fail, especially with home advantage. While Gatusso has admitted there are nerves in the camp, it would be one of the greatest upsets in World Cup qualification history should Northern Ireland prevail, especially without injured defenders Dan Ballard and Conor Bradley and with such a poor away record. Northern Ireland will hope to dig in and make themselves hard to break down but we’re going for a patient, if straightforward, Italy win.
Wales v Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cardiff.
Thursday, March 26th
Home advantage can be huge in what we expect to be a tight game. Wales sit 36 places ahead of their opponents in the FIFA rankings but are missing key players, including the goal threat of Wrexham’s Kieffer Moore. Much might rely on Harry Wilson, who will be hoping to take his spectacular Premier League form (10 goals, six assists for Fulham so far this season) onto the international stage. Dzeko needs to roll back the years if Bosnia are going to upset the odds, and Bosnia have won two and drawn two in the four previous meetings with their hosts. We’re predicting a narrow Wales win.
Final, Cardiff (if Wales progress): A Wales v Italy final promises to be a cracker of a game, with home advantage going to Craig Bellamy’s team. Having played nine games against each other, with the Azzurri coming out on top seven times, we expect them to make it eight, with Italy qualifying for the World Cup.
Hooligan Soccer Podcast on UEFA Playoffs
More World Cup Coverage
Here’s where you can read about the other UEFA Playoffs paths:
And for general World Cup news, check out: [Hooligan Soccer – World Cup News]
