Over the next two days, the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Round of 16 will be contested. Eight matches, but only two on this Tuesday, which we’ll be highlighting below. Tomorrow evening look for our preview on the other six fixtures, including three that will have the opportunities for a #cupset.
Charlotte FC vs. Atlanta United
Kickoff: 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Mecklenburg County Sportsplex at Matthews, Matthews, North Carolina
The good news is this fixture will give spectators a chance to see some World Cup players in action. Charlotte boasts Archie Goodwin (Australia), Tim Ream (U.S.A.) while Atlanta should field Matías Galarza (Paraguay, his ), Fafà Picault (Haiti) and Emmanuel Latte Lath (Ivory Coast).
The bad news is that neither team is in particularly strong form at the moment, so the match has the possibility of being, well, not so good.
Charlotte FC
Hosts Charlotte have put so much stock into this one that they rented out a nearby 5,000 capacity venue instead of funding the expense of Bank of America Field. It’s the same location where 3,700 fans came out to watch FC spank local USL-1 “rival” Charlotte Independence by 6 goals to 1. That, plus a 2-1 win on the road over NYCFC, are the only points The Crown have earned in their last five outings. Two of those defeats came to East Conference leaders Nashville by a cumulative scoreline of 6-3, the other was to Orlando City 4-1, certainly a seasonal low point.
There have been high points, however. They have a relatively healthy 44% shots on frame and average xG of 1.5. Spaniard Pep Biel is justifying his off-season acquisition by contributing to half of Charlotte’s goals so far (5g/4a). Israeli striker Idan Toklomati has punched in three goals, as has the aforementioned Archie Goodwin, doing so in the fewest minutes of any other MLS player.
Atlanta United
Atlanta United are at least coming into this on a high. They snatched their second league win of the season up in Canada, defeating Toronto FC 2-1. Their match to advance out of the Round of 32 wasn’t as straightforward as Charlotte’s. They came back to defeat Chattanooga FC, a USL-1 side two divisions lower, 3-1 after conceding in the 6th minute.
Atlanta is tied for second-fewest league goals scored (9) with Philadelphia and St. Louis. Only Sporting Kansas City has fewer. This is not company that you wish to be associated with. If not for Alexey Miranchuk, Atlanta would be in serious trouble. He’s scored five of their nine, with four others knocking in solo efforts.
Defensively, their record is actually better than Charlotte’s; they’ve conceded 17 goals to The Crown’s 18. We know Charlotte can score, the question is whether Atlanta will be wearing their scoring boots.
Prediction: Charlotte FC 1 – 1 Atlanta United. Charlotte will advance after a shootout.
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United
Kickoff: 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
PayPal Park, San Jose, California
Not to toot my own horn, but I totally nailed San Jose’s Round of 32 score of 2-0 over Phoenix Rising. I’ll admit, I didn’t predict the Quakes playing with 10 men for nearly 60 minutes to seal that victory, but I’ll take any small wins that come my way.
This week San Jose will host Minnesota in the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16, and United should prove a much harder nut to crack. After all, Minnesota hasn’t lost to San Jose in their last six meetings (4W 2D).
Minnesota United
The Loons have been a very Jekyll/Hyde sort of team. They started 1W 2D 2L but then won five straight in all competitions. In the Round of 32, Minnesota struggled to break down Sacramento Republic. The match went to extra time on a nil-nil draw, eventually heading to a penalty shootout on the same scoreline. It took 12 rounds to crown a winner, but Minnesota ultimately came out on top.
Last Saturday, they suffered their first defeat in weeks, falling to LAFC 1-0. In that match Minnesota outshot the hosts by nearly four times (24 to 7) and held 62% possession. But LAFC were ruthlessly clinical; all seven shots were on frame forcing Drake Callender into making six saves. Minnesota managed only 17% on frame shot percentage, their lowest of the season, which is averaging 39.2%.
I’m harping on shots because I believe it will be a major factor here. San Jose has the second highest number of shots taken for the season (157). Minnesota ranks 9th with 133. Both teams’ on frame % is practically identical, but Quakes 2.22 xG is substantially higher than United’s 1.3. This means not only does San Jose shoot more, they take better quality shots. It’s no surprise they’ve outscored the Loons by 25 goals to 11 this season.
San Jose Earthquakes
Last Saturday San Jose were up against it in St. Louis. CITY did a great job in shutting them down and breaking through a defense that until that game was giving up 0.4 goals per match. STL had a 2-1 lead heading into the tail end of the half before Timo Werner put on a clinic. He drained a PK, then smashed in the game winner seven minutes before time.
And here’s where all the statistical talk flies out the window. Speaking with a friend of mine over the weekend, a true soccer-head who’s been in the business for years, he had this to say about San Jose: “They just can’t be beat right now.” Sometimes momentum carries you forward. Certainly in many of their nine victories, they were out-statted. But few teams could out-play them.
Prediction: San Jose 3 – 1 Minnesota United
