The one thing in England’s favor when they come up against another defensive wall in Panama will be that a point is no good for the opposition. Realistically, even three points won’t be enough but the Panamanians at least need to give it a go. They sit at the bottom of Group L without a point and need not just three but five or six goals against England to force themselves into contention for a qualifying third place.
It won’t happen. But equally there is no value to them at all going down without a fight.
England need a win to guarantee top spot and a knockout game against Ecuador. Whoever finishes second will, unless there’s an earthquake in Group K, face either Portugal or Colombia. So there’s a big incentive for England to top the group.
But they are going to have to up their game after an insipid display against Ghana to do so.
England
Learning from the Ghana 0-0 presents Thomas Tuchel with an opportunity to change a lot around.
Wide players Anthony Gordon and Noni Madueke both appear incapable of unpicking a low block, which means Bukayo Saka should be an automatic selection to start. Direct pace and running – which Gordon and Madueke are all about – is negated when 11 men are facing you, so a need for creativity comes into play.
That might open the door for Eberechi Eze, who can drift and play in tight areas. Nico O’Reilly, so used to coming up against a defensive wall for Manchester City, should come in on the left again, either left back or into a more advanced role, where he has excelled at the Etihad this season.
Switch in midfield
Is it time for Kobbie Mainoo or Morgan Rogers? Essentially, England cannot do the same thing against Panama as they did against Ghana. Mainoo excels at a quick transition, something Declan Rice or Elliott Anderson aren’t so good at. Do England need two essentially holding midfielders against Panama? Surely not.
Rice as a holder and Mainoo as a more forward midfielder who can break the lines, dribble round players and force the opposition out of their shape feels like a good option.
Bellingham can play anywhere in the midfield so even dropping him deeper and bringing in Mainoo and Rogers in an attacking position is an option.
Shaky defense
Defensively England still look shaky and it’s time to choose a central two and stick with it. Marc Guéhi is nailed on for me, it’s a question whether John Stones or Ezri Konsa is his preferred partner. But Tuchel should make a choice and stay with it, if only to calm the nerves of an erratic Jordan Pickford. Djed Spence should deputize for the injured Reece James if the Chelsea midfielder doesn’t shake of a niggle.
England need to show more urgency and pace, and take a few more risks on Saturday night. If they do, a comfortable victory will follow.
Panama
Panama are no mugs. They lost 1-0 to both Croatia and Ghana, and for long spells against Ghana were the better team. Against Croatia they were largely outclassed and that should provide encouragement for England.
But Los Canaleros are nothing if not dogged and won’t make it easy. Head coach Thomas Christiansen only used 13 players across both group games, with 10 players starting both matches.
Strong defense
Not surprisingly, goalkeeper Orlando Mosquera has starred in both games and likes to come and claim crosses, while in front of him BeÅŸiktaÅŸ defender Michael Murillo has impressed on the right side of a three man defense.
Captain Yoel Barcenas has moved from a winger into central midfield and looks stronger for it. He’s the player Panama will pin their hopes of a transition on.
Up front is where the main problems lie, though not for lack of effort. Panama actually have the second highest xG in the Group (1.18), and trail Croatia in shots taken by one (17). They just haven’t found the net yet, but will be salivating at taking on an out-of-sorts England back line.
Prediction
With two 1-0 defeats to Panama’s name, it would not be a surprise to see a third. England will hope for better to go into the knockout stages with some momentum, and if they turn up and play with more urgency they should be looking at two or three goals. Either way, it’s an England win.
Nick has enjoyed a highly successful career in journalism and the media. He spent 23 years in the UK national print media, including 15 years on the Daily Telegraph as a senior reporter. He is also an experienced commentator and communications expert. His broadcast appearances include Newsnight, Sky News, BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Television, BBC Radio Scotland and local television in Scotland and England. He currently hosts The Road to World Cup 26 podcast.
