Match- FC Dallas hosts NYCFC
This week in MLS Week 27 FC Dallas will have a tough task when NYCFC comes to town. Dallas is poor at home, and while they won 3-0 last week against St. Louis City, their only other home win was against Sporting KC. Those are not competitive opponents. In fact, Dallas has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses at home.
I wanted a pro NYCFC play for this week so I am taking NYCFC on the Draw No Bet option at +106.
Pick- NYCFC DNB +106
NYCFC hasn’t been great on the road, but they do have 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses. They have also only seen 27 goals in their 12 home matches, which is just over the 3 goal mark. In fact, they have played to 3 goals or less in 9 of their 12 away matches, with their match against Atlanta United, a 4-3 loss, being the lone shootout.
FC Dallas could be without three crucial players; Luciano Acosta, Anderson Julio, and Pedrinho listed as questionable.
An NYCFC win isn’t set in stone, but I love taking the better team on a DNB at plus money. NYCFC could dictate the pace of play and draw this match into a boring affair.
Match- LAFC hosts Portland Timbers
Next up in MLS Week 27 we have LAFC hosting the Portland Timbers. LAFC has been on a good stretch, especially at home. They are seeing an average of 1.92 goals per match at home, and that trend has landed in 4 of their last 6 matches. LAFC alone scored 8 goals in 3 home matches, pointing me towards an over to pair with LAFC winning this match.
Pick- LAFC & O2.5 -125
Portland are missing their three best offensive options, and I think they have a hard time keeping up with LAFC this weekend. Portland will be without Antony, da Costa, and Rodriguez and have had difficulty scoring anyway. Portland has only 13 goals in 10 away matches, a stark contrast to last season where they were at points one of the highest powered offenses.
While this may point towards an under bet, LAFC will be without four defenders- Aaron Long, Maxime Chanot, Eddie Segura, and Sergi Palencia. That is going to leave Hugo Lloris facing a cluster of shots, even if they aren’t from Portland’s A-Team.
I think we see a shootout this weekend with Bouanga back from the All-Star match, Dilrosun settling into MLS, and Nathan Ordaz settling into the striker role. LAFC is going to be gearing up for a run, and can’t stumble against Portland in week 27.
Match- Inter Miami hosts FC Cincinnati
MLS Week 27 is set to see Inter Miami host FC Cincinnati. This is a game to watch, as these two teams should finish the season near the top of the Eastern Conference standings. While both teams have absences, I am more confident in Miami’s depth. They had Messi and Suarez sit out the All Star game, with the former playing the best of his life, and the latter needing time to find his 2024 form.
Pick- Inter Miami +100
FC Cincinnati is amazing on the road, winning each of the last four away matches. They are 8-1-4 on the road, but their 18 scored and 17 conceded doesn’t seem to warrant that result. They aren’t going to squeak out a one goal win against Inter Miami, who have a +8 goal differential in 10 home matches.
This match is high risk, but a rule we set at the beginning of the season was “when Inter Miami is even money, we bet Inter Miami.”
This rule wasn’t made to be broken.
Match- Atlanta United host Seattle Sounders
Atlanta United will host the Seattle Sounders in MLS’s Week 27, and I like Atlanta United in this one. They are incredibly hard to trust right now, so I found another way to favor Atlanta- by taking the team total over 1.5 goals at +108.
Atlanta has scored 2 or more goals in each of their 4 home matches, totaling 11 goals in those 4 matches. While Seattle has typically played to under goal totals, they have allowed 2, 3, 1, and 4 in their last 4 away matches. Their defense hasn’t played in weeks as a full unit, due to injury and suspension, and this might not be the reunion they were expecting.
Pick- Atlanta TT O1.5 +108
Atlanta has players like Almiron and Miranchuk finally playing better. Latte Lath, on the other hand, will be trying to regain his early season form and get back to his scoring ways.
I don’t think Seattle can play as solid as they have on defense, whether it be the rare trip to the East Coast or the probable exclusion of their star keeper Stefan Frei.
Both of these teams haven’t looked like a cohesive unit, and this comes with some risk. However, at +108 the odds for the home team to score 2 goals, regardless of the team or the situation, is a serious discount.
Match- Chicago Fire host NY Red Bulls
In MLS Week 27 the Chicago Fire will host the NY Red Bulls. This match has one of the largest sets of possible outcomes, but I will be playing on the Red Bulls’s poor away form. While putting together an impressive 8-2-2 home record with a +13 goal differential, they are just 1-4-7 on the road with a -9 differential.
Chicago is the logical winner, but of their 9-5-9 record, they are a measly 2-4-4 at home. I wanted a play with a double chance for this match, so I will pair the Chicago double chance with a Both Teams To Score prop.
Pick- Chicago DC & BTTS -107
While the Red Bulls scored in 7 of their 12 away matches, Chicago has seen BTTS in 60% of their home matches, including both of their last two. In fact, of those Chicago home matches where BTTS did not hit, 4 of them lacked a goal by Chicago, with two being 0-0 draws.
Chicago are struggling to score at home, and the Red Bulls are struggling to keep opponents out of the back of the net. This is a great recipe for a home double chance and BTTS play.
Match- St. Louis City hosts Minnesota United
This week in MLS Week 27 St. Louis City will host Minnesota United. St. Louis has had poor form for much of the season, but their recent home form has me looking at taking them to score some goals. While St. Louis City has scored only 12 goals in their last 10 matches, a lot of that offensive slump has to do with playing 6 of those 10 matches on the road. While St. Louis City has scored a lowly 14 goals in 11 home matches, 11 of those came in just their last 5.
I think this match could be hard to play; St. Louis City is in poor form, but Minnesota has two suspended players and notable players like Dayne St. Clair and Michael Boxall returning from the all star match. I like St. Louis City on the team total- over 1.5 goals.
Pick- St. Louis City TT O1.5 +124
Minnesota United has only allowed 13 goals in 12 away matches, but with those notable absences, fatigue, and travel, I think we’re going to see a different Minnesota. They allowed 2 or more goals in only 4 of their away matches, but this includes 2 of their last 4. If we give this a 50/50 chance at landing, and we’re seeing +124 odds, it is a nice inclusion in our picks for this week.
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