Much has changed at the Etihad during the off-season, and the debate over Manchester City’s expected trajectory for the new season is reaching a fever pitch. Let’s put the situation bluntly:
City have now gone two years without a Premier League title (an eternity for this version of the club). Now, they head into the 2026/27 campaign without their heartbeat in midfield (Ballon d’Or winner Rodri has joined Barcelona) and their managerial mastermind, Pep Guardiola.
On paper, the loss of the world’s best holding midfielder and the most influential manager of the modern era shouldn’t exactly increase City’s chances of reclaiming the crown. Yet, despite the huge change in dynamics, 17 BBC Sport pundits (and Opta’s Supercomputer) still predict a top-two finish.
Does that actually make sense? Let’s take a deeper look.
The New Man in the Dugout: Enzo Maresca
After ten years and 17 major trophies, Pep Guardiola, finally called time on his City career and headed off into the Spanish sunset.
Stepping into the void is Enzo Maresca. The Italian is a familiar face, having served as Pep’s assistant during the 2022/23 Treble season. Since then, his CV has been gilded with a few more baubles: a Championship title with Leicester City, followed by UEFA Conference League and FIFA Club World Cup success with Chelsea in 2025.
The City players who served under Guardiola have variously describe his style as ‘similar but different’. Maresca himself admits that his knowledge of the City infrastructure was a factor in his appointment and that his approach has echoes of his predecessor’s.
Tactical Evolution: High Wingers and the Double Pivot
Maresca favors a 4-2-3-1 formation. In pre-season, two distinct departures from the “Pep-way” have emerged: the positioning of the wingers and the build-up structure.
Under Maresca, wingers stay high and wide, tasked with isolating defenders in one-on-one situations. Antoine Semenyo has described this approach as “music to my ears,” and the stats back him up. The 26-year-old has already racked up five assists in four pre-season matches under the new boss.
In possession, Maresca utilizes two defensive midfielders in front of a back three. It provides a more “solid” base than the Guardiola era, where Rodri was often left to patrol the midfield alone. City fans will remember all too well how exposed they could look when possession was lost; this new double-pivot aims to fix that.
The $147m Hole: Replacing Rodri
To facilitate this new “solid” base, City broke the British transfer record in July, splashing $147 million (£116m) on Elliot Anderson to replace Rodri. The former Nottingham Forest man lined up alongside Mateo Kovacic in the Community Shield last weekend, and his ability to dictate the tempo will help define City’s season.
It is a lot of pressure on a 23-year-old but the having helped England reach the semi-finals of this summer’s World Cup it would seem the former Nottingham Forest player can handle it.
Beating the Post-Dynasty Curse
History has been cruel to those brave enough to follow legends. Usually, the man who takes the throne at the end of a managerial dynasty is doomed to fail.
If we go back to before the Premier League, no one predicted the all-conquering Liverpool side would go 30 years without a title when Kenny Dalglish stepped down in the early 90s.
Manchester United won 13 Premier League titles under Sir Alex Ferguson but have not had realistic sniff of one since he left Old Trafford in 2013. His successor, David Moyes, lasted just ten months.
Arsenal struggled after Arsene Wenger ended his 22-year stint as manager. Successor Unai Emery, a brilliant highly-decorated manager, lasted only 18 months. The Gunners only ended their 22-year wait for another Premier League title last season.
The only anomaly is Arne Slot, who won the Premier League title in his first season after taking over from Jurgen Klopp in 2024. Critics would argue that a lack of transfers in his first summer at Anfield meant it was actually Klopp’s team playing on muscle memory that won the title.
However, once Slot tried to implement his own style after a $566 million (£446m) spending spree in 2025, the team slumped to fifth and he was sacked.
City fans remain optimistic, but that positivity took a dent following a humbling 3-0 defeat to Arsenal in the Community Shield. Now the pressure is already on to perform better in the season opener against Bournemouth on August 23—otherwise, the heat will be unbearable by the time the first Manchester Derby rolls around three games later.
Predicted Line-up vs. Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
Summer Transfer Arrivals at a Glance
Elliot Anderson – Nottingham Forest, $147m
Jeremy Monga – Leicester City, $12.7m
Pierce Charles – Sheffield Wednesday, $3.8m
Geronimo Rulli – Marseille, $2.2m
Mathys Detourbet – Troyes, Undisclosed
Manchester City are also interested in signing Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández. Maresca, who recently managed the Argentina international at Stamford Bridge, is thought to be the main driving force behind the bid.
Defining Success: What Does Maresca Need?
Maresca is effectively on a hiding to nothing. There is a very thin ‘habitable zone’ where conditions are right for life and he can survive until next season.
Expecting a team shorn of its World Cup-winning captain and in transition under a new manager to win the Premier League or Champions League is unrealistic. That’s not to say it can’t happen, but it can’t be expect to happen.
However, given City’s recent history, finishing fourth with ‘only’ a League Cup to show for it would be seen as underachieving.
That leaves a second/third place finish and an FA Cup win as the bare minimum. And that is a realistic expectation.
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