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If the EFL kicks Southampton out of the play-off final to reach the English Premier League amid allegations of spying on their semi-final opponents it will open a Pandora’s box never seen before in English football.

The League is investigating the Saints for spying on Championship rivals Middlesbrough and Boro want them kicked out of next week’s final so they can take their place.

Southampton beat Middlesbrough 2-1 after two legs to book their final slot against Hull City on May 23rd. But that game has been thrown into doubt after it emerged that Saints analyst, named in the media as William Salt, spied on a Boro training session.

Tonda Ekhert‘s side have subsequently been charged by the EFL for a breach of regulations. One is about acting towards fellow clubs in good faith, while the other prohibits any club from observing, or attempting to observe, another club’s training session within 72 hours of a scheduled match between the two clubs.

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But with the threat of expulsion of being one game away from a return to the riches of the Premier League, can they honestly say the punishment fit the crime?

Precedent set by Leeds United

Think back to 2019. Leeds United were caught spying on a Derby County training session as the two teams prepared to meet in a vital Championship clash towards the top of the table.

Then-Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa admitted that he had sent a member of staff to spy on every one of their opponents during the season.

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The EFL found Leeds breached rules over treating teams with “good faith” and as a result introduced the other regulation it has charged Southampton with – viewing opposition training within 72 hours of facing them.

The media dubbed it “Spygate” and Leeds were eventually fined £200,000. The punishment facing Southampton is denying them a shot at over £200 million.

While Southampton have been charged with a rule ironically brought in as a result of Leeds’ behaviour, kicking them out of the play offs if found guilty seems to be wholly out of proportion to the actual crime committed.

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What did Southampton actually learn?

Let’s face it, what realistically can be learned from watching a training session that can’t be learned from hours and hours of footage and analysis that clubs now have at their fingertips? And the fact that they’ve played each other twice in the league already?

A surprise change of formation? Unlikely given the two teams know each other’s strengths and weaknesses well already. Who is doing what at a set piece? Maybe. But again, I could tell you which Boro players go up and head and ball from a corner and I don’t support either side. See who’s fit and who’s not? It’s useful, but hardly match defining given there was no smoking gun player that might return to Boro’s squad for the game.

Perhaps it was just a fishing exercise to see if there was anything unusual to report back. After all, with the two teams barely separated after 46 games, any small thing, any marginal gain could be massive.

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You can argue it doesn’t matter what they learned and what they didn’t, if found guilty they broke the rules. And you’d be right. And yes, they need punishing. Yet after 180-plus minutes of football, for Boro to claim that spying cost them a place in the final feels like clutching at straws.

What else did Southampton learn in Spygate #2? Well if you don’t want to get caught, don’t stand next to a tree with a camera so obviously in your hand. Rule 1 in the spy playbook – remain anonymous, blend in, stand behind the tree. Saying that, if they did pick something crucial up, William will be worth his Salt.

Pandora’s box

If the EFL expel Southampton from the play-offs, it opens up the possibility of every club in the league claiming they were spied on and demanding their results against the Saints be purged (presumably though only if they lost!).

What would the league table look like then? What happens to the teams newly promoted to the play offs? Will they demand the play offs be replayed according to the “new” table?

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With no precedent on expulsion, the league would face legal challenge by Southampton no doubt, which could see the play off final delayed further. They new season fixture lists will be due before we even know who’s playing in what league. It would be an absolute farce.

And what about poor Hull City? They’ve done nothing wrong here yet face not knowing what league they are going to be in for far longer than anyone else (other than Boro if they are pushed in), placing them at a competitive disadvantage in the transfer market.

Proportionate punishment

If found guilty, Southampton must be punished but the punishment must be proportionate. A hefty fine and/or a points deduction from the start of next season is sufficient sanction. Boro tried to sue Derby in 2022 claiming that they had missed out on a play off place in a previous season because the Rams had breached financial rules. They have form in blaming everyone but themselves.

The reality is they lost fair and square, in the end to a cross which curled in and which no spy in the world could have foreseen. For three quarters of the two legs, Southampton were the better side and deservedly went through.

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Whatever minor thing they might or might not have gleaned from watching an opponents’ training session from a long distance away, Southampton do not deserve to have the chance of promotion to the Premier League taken away from them. It would be massive overkill. For the integrity of the game, it cannot happen.

Common sense must prevail, but then this is the EFL we’re talking about so quite frankly anything could happen.

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