The Designated Pundits break down their MLS bet slips each week LIVE on YouTube. You can catch the replay on Spotify with video, below.
Match- Atlanta United host LA Galaxy
Pick- Atlanta United +145
Atlanta United are off to a slow start. They are 3-1-7 on the season, and have a 2-1-4 home record. This weekend, however, they host the LA Galaxy who are both an unfamiliar opponent and an unpredictable one.
While Atlanta haven’t been great this season, coach Tata Martino seems to have them headed in the right direction. They won each of their last two matches, both against Eastern Conference Canadian teams. We’ve notably seen an improvement from midfielder Alexsei Miranchuk and winger Saba Lobzhanidze, and even Latte Lath got involved in the scoring last weekend.
When we look at the LA Galaxy side, you can add travel as yet another strike against them. Moving from the west to east coast usually provides a quality drop with jet lag, which I think works against them this week.
My model has Atlanta United with a 47.9% chance to win, so at +145 these are great odds.
Match- NE Revolution host Philadelphia Union
Pick- Revolution DC & U3.5 -117
This weekend the New England Revolution host the Philadelphia Union, where the Revs will look to expand on their 5-0 start. It was mentioned that this coincides with the Revs changing to natural grass ahead of the World Cup. I don’t know what it is, but they’re hot so I’ll buy that.
The Union, on the other hand, are 0-1-4 on the road. I like the Revolution here, but the Union’s current form has me just a touch spooked. Starting 0-6 then going 1-3-1 over their next 5 has me liking the Revolution on the double chance option, instead of an outright win.
I needed a pair to get up to -117 odds, so I took the under on 3.5 goals. My model has that under hitting over 65% of the time. In fact, Philadelphia has only seen a total over 3.5 in two of eleven matches this season, while the Revolution has seen a total over 3.5 three times, all in their first four matches.
I like a low total paired with a Revolution double chance. At -117 I think this is a low risk play which protects from a flukey low scoring draw.
Match- FC Dallas hosts Real Salt Lake
Pick- Real Salt Lake +126 DNB
This weekend, I like RSL to leave Dallas with a result. Part of that is Dallas, who seemed to have lost their early season magic playing to two draws, followed by two losses, then a win against RBNY last weekend.
Real Salt Lake heads into this weekend as a team everyone seems to be talking about. Diego Luna is back to health and the young squad had played to some unexpected results. I think Luna’s World Cup ambition has him pushing every week, while other players like Gozo are playing for the future.
All in all, I like the draw no bet to protect against the tie. After all, RSL has been a different team on the road, only 1-1-2 this season.
In a particular spot where RSL can have an advantage, through balls and playing in dangerous parts of the pitch will be a strength. Dallas has been clumsy with fouling in bad areas, and I wonder if that could be a theme when RSL heads to the Lone Star State this weekend.
Match- Nashville SC host DC United
Pick- BTTS -104
I like when the “both teams to score” option comes out at near even money, and when Nashville plays DC United, that is my best play.
Nashville has only one clean sheet, a win over Orlando at home. DC has also been hotter than usual, with 2 straight wins including 9 goals in their last 3 matches. Louis Munteanu has finally gotten healthy, and is a bright spot for DC United. After starting with five sub appearances, he has three goals in two starts.
I think DC United will score and cash the BTTS play.
Match- Colorado Rapids host St. Louis City
Pick- Colorado Rapids +105
I like the Colorado Rapids against St. Louis City this week. I fought myself to make a spread pick on Colorado -1.5 a play, but decided I’ll take the safer play and try to bring my bankroll back around after a few down weeks.
Rapids are 3-0-1 at home, while STLC is 0-2-4 on the road. All signs point to a home victory. Let’s not overthink this one.
Match- Minnesota United host Austin FC
Pick- Minnesota and O2.5 +130
Minnesota United host Austin FC this weekend, and we have two teams in very different places right now. Minnesota is 2-1-1 at home and 5-1 in their last 6 matches. They are playing well, and last week’s 3-2 win in Columbus really woke me up to Minnesota.
Austin is bad on the road. They are 0-2-3 this season. However, their two straight 2-0 wins have the over at great odds. Those were home matches and I don’t think Austin can play to nil in Minnesota. After all, those wins were against St. Louis City and Houston- not exactly top tier clubs.
In the end, every Austin road game has been over 3 goals. Minnesota, surprisingly, hasn’t reached that total in a home game yet. However, with Brandon Vazquez returning from injury, I think they might just have a spark to help push this game over 2.5 goals.
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