As this helpful graphic from @markrstats illustrates, Arsenal lost all sense of authority midweek against the worst side in the league, throwing away a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2. This wasn’t just a case of a Wolves smash and grab, on all metrics it seems Arsenal’s performance level drastically declined as they felt the burden of being the league leaders…
Against Brentford, after going into the lead, Arsenal’s XG also flatlined for the last 30 minutes before a belated rally in injury time. And yet, when you widen the lens to the season-long Understat game-state data, the story becomes more layered.
When Arsenal go two goals clear, they don’t retreat into their shell — they continue generating high levels of expected goals. They still attack, they still try to land the knockout punch. But in that same state, their defensive concession rises as well. The games open up. Control becomes stretched. It doesn’t scream fear – it suggests looseness regardless of whether they’re going for it or looking to shut up shop.
What’s fascinating is that Manchester City show a similarly open profile when ahead, and in some game states are even more volatile defensively. The difference is narrative memory: City’s historic reputation cushions their fluctuations, Arsenal’s amplifies them.
Some Historical Bottle Jobs
If we hark back to the 22/23 season, Arsenal were leading for large swathes of the season and as they headed into April, they were comfortably ahead of Guardiola’s men. In what proved to be a bottle job of unmitigated proportions, Arsenal proceeded to twice give away 2-0 leads in back to back games. Firstly against Liverpool at Anfield (the game turned on its head to such an extent, Liverpool ended up with 4.64 xG to Arsenal’s 1.54) and then versus West Ham.
This was compounded by an inexplicably poor display against one of the worst Premier League teams of all time. Southampton were allowed to race into a 2-0 lead, before the Gunners fought back to end it 3-3. The psychological toil would prove too much. The now limp looking Gooners were put out of their misery by Manchester City who obliterated them 4-1 in what was being billed as a ‘title decider’.
The following season told a similar story in the sense that Arsenal once again set the pace but a weak winter period would prove to be fateful. Despite their underlying performance metrics looking solid, Arsenal lacked the killer instinct to convert displays into results and this left them fighting a uphill battle in the run in. An unrelenting Man City never took their foot off the gas, and whilst Arsenal were respectable runners up – their mid season failures left a bitter taste in the mouth.
Arsenal Need Calm
Ultimately Arsenal despite it not being their first rodeo, are still a side that seems to learning the cold, clinical art of closing the door. The next step isn’t bravery; it’s emotional control. Titles are not just won by scoring more, they’re sealed by knowing exactly when to stop the game breathing and Arsenal’s underlying xGA numbers when in the lead, do give rise for concern.
Looking ahead to the weekend there may be no harsher environment to test that emotional control than a North London Derby against a wildly unpredictable Tottenham Hotspur side under new leadership after the departure of Thomas Frank.
Spurs Hoping for a Bounce
Igor Tudor has earned a reputation for ‘fire-fighting’ and making an instant impact. And when you look at the extent of absences from Spurs’ first team, that description is apt.
Nevertheless he is THE ideal candidate to provide a ‘new manager bounce’. His is a front foot style at odds with the submissive Thomas Frank who would have looked out of place in a Las Vegas casino… whereas Tudor makes Jordan Belfort appear conservative.
With White Hart Lane desperate to see some good football, they will be in full voice and keen to get off to a good start. Worryingly for Arsenal, despite Tottenham struggling in terms of chance creation all season, they tend to generate more chances and concede less once they get into a lead – so a fast start and an early goal, could put them in the driving seat as they’re a side which feeds on confidence.
Arsenal’s Plan
From an Arsenal perspective, the big question is how do they stop a minor blip turning into another defining moment – another notch on the bedpost of past failures. The key is selecting their most mentally resilient XI and forging a strategy designed to absorb the pressure of Tudor’s wild in possession tactics (which can at times take the shape of a 3-4-2-1 but includes wing backs swapping positions with inside forwards and wide CBs getting into the box) and exploit them in wide areas.
The likes of Madueke and Martinelli could be key in this game… Saka, Rice in the spine to provide that mental strength in the middle of the park and possessing the ability to pierce between the aggressive lines of pressure Tudor can weave. This will not be a game for the faint-hearted.
Another factor that has haunted Arteta historically is ensuring the right type of subs are brought on for a particular type of game state. Weakening the mental strength of the side or utilizing the wrong physical or tactical profile in key junctures of the game has been a historic issue with Arteta and he will need to have his wits about him to deal with the unpredictable Tudor.
The Takeaway
In conclusion, this North London Derby is the most important of the Spaniard’s tenure. It is an opportunity to demonstrate that this Arsenal side is built different; that they’re capable of breaking through the scar tissue and can deal with set backs in a manner that was beyond previous squads. An opportunity to demonstrate that they knew this day of reckoning would come and that they are looking forward to proving their mettle…
