It’s do or die time for three teams sitting just below the post-season cutoff line in the MLS Eastern Conference. Toronto FC and both New York teams (FC and Red Bulls) must win their match this weekend to keep any playoff hopes aflame.
Red Bull New York
RBNY have by far the worst possible draw of the three. They have to travel to take on the league leaders: Nashville SC. The hosts have yet to lose a match at Geodis Park, notching 14 wins and two draws. They’ve conceded 12 goals, while scoring 45. Red Bulls’ away form isn’t atrocious, they’ve earned 18 points placing them squarely in the middle of the league. But middle-of-the-road won’t be good enough. A loss effectively eliminates them.
Michael Bradley will expect to see his side look more like the team that upset Inter Miami last weekend, and less like the one that collapsed late against the Revs midweek. Julian Hall continued his stellar season with a goal against New England Wednesday. RBNY will need him (and everyone else) to be operating at peak efficiency, and then some, if they hope to topple the Supporters Shield holders in their final home match.
Last weekend Nashville sat starters Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar and ended up with a 0-0 draw to Philly. I’m not sure BJ Callaghan will take that route on Saturday. Nashville has already set a new bar for highest home points earned (44), and still have something to play for. A win here ties them for highest point total with 2024’s Inter Miami (74). The team knows they’re onto something special; they’ll want to grab as many honors as they can before the playoffs.
Hooligan Take: Sadly, it’s the end of the road for Red Bulls. Nashville will win 3-1.
Toronto FC
Les Rouges travel down to Hotlanta on Sunday. The Five Stripes are already eliminated, but don’t think this will be a cakewalk. Mercedes-Benz stadium can be a cauldron if their fans get riled up, and Atlanta would love nothing more than to crush Toronto’s dreams underfoot. Their expensive front three (Miguel Almirón, Aleksey Miranchuk and recent signing Breel Embolo) can be devastating when firing on all cylinders, but without a proper defense all their effort is for nought by the time the final whistle sounds. Atlanta’s only win in their last five was against the hapless CF Montréal.
Momentum favors the visitors, who have three wins from their last five. Consistency has been sorely lacking in the Toronto camp this season, but the team has produced some dominant wins over conference leaders Nashville (2-1 on Sep. 9) and Inter Miami (2-1 on Aug. 22).
Hooligan Take: It will be a close one. Both sides love last minute drama. Toronto will prevail 2-1.
New York City FC
With only 38 points, one less than the other two above them in the table, NYCFC know that everything needs to go their way if they want to be playing after Nov. 7th. Lucky for them, the scheduling gods gave them a gift: CF Montréal.
Montréal is a Wooden Spoon contender. And unlike their competition for that (dis)honor, Sporting Kansas City, they don’t have a full squad rebuild to blame for their position, or even to offer their supporters hope. They are simply bad. Zero wins in October, including a face-slapping loss to Forge FC in the Canadian Cup Final on penalties. With Prince Owusu and Brayan Ceballos both out due to injury, expect manager Philippe Eullaffroy to give some youngsters a start.
NYCFC boss Pascal Jansen isn’t taking the visitors lightly, commenting: “They won’t hand it [victory] over on a silver platter.” He’s got his own injury concerns with Maxi Morales, Alonso Martínez and Kai Trewin all questionable to start. Balancing the urgency of a win this weekend against next week’s fixture at D.C. United is his biggest challenge. Happily, Argentine midfielder Nicolás Fernández continues to be a one-man wrecking crew. He has 16g/5a this season, among the league’s best.
Hooligan Take: New York will accomplish something that’s eluded them since July 25th… score three goals. They’ll take this win 4-1.
