It’s not looking good for Scotland, this much is true. Below is the current snapshot of all third place teams, prior to the Group G and beyond matches.
As you can see, Scotland has already dipped below the Top 8 threshold courtesy of Senegal’s thumping 5-0 victory over a 10-man Iraq.
But hope is not lost, ye Tartan faithful. There is still the slimmest of margins for your beloved squad to advance. I just ran all the permutations, and this is the list – in chronological order – of what has to happen to secure Scotland a place in the Round of 32.
How Scotland Qualifies for R32
Group H
Basically, Scotland needs the 3rd and 4th place teams to have 2 points (or fewer). The first step in that happening is Spain MUST beat Uruguay. End stop. If that doesn’t happen, Scotland is fooked.
Group G
Iran must lose to Egypt. Doesn’t matter by how much. Egypt just needs to win. Hear that, Mo Salah?
The Belgium vs. New Zealand match result is moot. If either team wins, they leapfrog Scotland on points. If they draw, Belgium leapfrogs Scotland on goal differential (0 > -3)
Group L
Assuming the above goes to plan, Croatia now lead to lose to Ghana. Badly. We’re talking by 3 goals or more.
If Croatia loses by 2 goals, they will be tied with Scotland on an identical -3 goal differential. The next tiebreaker then becomes Team Conduct Score.
Team Conduct Score
Simply put, this is calculated from the number of yellow and red cards accumulated over the group stage. It’s sometimes referred to “The Fair Play” rule. All teams start at zero (0), and every card subtracts from that according to to this rubric
- Yellow card = -1 point
- Second yellow → red card = -3 points
- Direct red card = -4 points
- Yellow + direct red (in same game) = -5 points
Scotland is at -5. Croatia is currently at -1. That means Croatia must also draw a direct red card, plus one yellow card, to go below Scotland.
Group J
If we’re already this far, there’s some serious black mojo at work. All the same, let’s continue.
Algeria will now have to lose to Austria, but only by 2 goals or more. If they lose by one, see Team Conduct Score above for the red card scenario. Algeria’s current TCS is also -1.
Group K
This is it. The final set of matches. If Scotland are still in contention here… well, damn.
Only one match will matter, and that’s DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan. An Uzbek win, or a draw, will launch Scottish supporters into a frenzy of bagpiping, beer drinking and revelry the likes of which could level city centers.
The Takeaway
I’m sure some Opta supercomputer or the like could explain all this with fancy percentages and such. But instead I’ll rely on a clever parody/parable from a not-quite real book of the Gospel, Ecosse 18:25 – “Indeed, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for Scotland to enter the Round of 32 in the World Cup.”
